Friday, September 12, 2008

The Polls Are In: Big Media Lost

nOBAMAforBIDdEN-2008 Presidential Badge

Of 100% percent of Americans influenced by big media, 115% of them claimed to be influenced from 0 to 250% of the time.

Statistics make my head hurt. Not really, but what is worse is when statistics hold no bearing on reality. In a last ditch effort to do the political thing before it drives me crazy I thought I would share some of these more recent stats with everyone.

In the last two elections, polls leading up to and in the election had George W. Bush losing the presidential race, or at least that is what Big Media would like you to think.

Over the last two elections, two major blunders seemed (to me) to play out: everyone thought that young adults were going to come out in droves and vote. At the same time, big media houses promoting statistics that didn't represent reality seemed to have an adverse affect on the looser (presumptively, I will admit. It seems that if people think their candidate is winning, then they don't bother going out to vote.)

Ignoring statistics completely, based on the buzz that surrounds Obama vs. McCain, which way do you think the country is leaning? If the amount of support and buzz equals poll results, what do you think those statistics should look like? Is Obama leading the charge for change in the minds of American voters? Is McCain the maverick this country needs according to poll results?

Surprisingly I haven't heard a lot about polls so far this election. If I do, then they are about a very specific demographic on a very specific topic. But what about polls with regard to the general election. Let's take a look at the same poll source that the LA Times refers to.

Before you run out to re-examine the political bias of the LA Times, understand that RealClearPolitics is there source (in some cases.) RealClearPolitics takes a look at a number of polling firms to get a larger picture of how the polls measure up across polling companies. So how do the numbers look at this time then?

According to the polls page of RealClearPolitics when taking into account polls from the major networks, Associated press, Gallup and others (ten sources in all on the frontpage) seven show McCain leading the polls, two show Obama with a one point gain, and one shows a tie, giving McCain more than a two point lead (notice that USA Today shows McCain in more of a lead than FOX News.)

Interesting stuff.

Side-note: RealClearPolitics, on the same page, offers insight into the approval rating for congress. Wow. Hanging at or around an all time low. Asking the same question as this article in the LA Times, wasn't this the congress that outed the GOP and took over the majority role, campaigning for change, promising to clean up Congress? So let me get this right. Campaigning for change, promising to clean up congress, in the voting majority, outcome equalling the lowest ratings of Congress in history. I know that I definitely hear the press talk about how frustrated and disappointed and unapproving the population is of Republican President George W. Bush. Seldom do we hear that the Democrat-led-Congress is also achieving an all time low in the minds of voters. Blameshifting asside, Washington seems romantically infatuated with promoting change. Sadly, current history tells us that we as a population are just getting hoodwinked by politicians again and again, bringing us the earcandy that we love and not delivering much else.

Again, if you want change, then look at the change-agenda of the presidential candidates this election and hope that your candidate will do what they say. All we have is hope. "But Steve, I don't trust the other guy. He is shady. I am voting for the lesser of two evils." Ah, they are all Shady, don't kid yourself. Just vote for the one who's talking points you most agree with and hope they keep their word.

I have said it before. I think all of the candidates have issues that make them look good or bad, visionary or revisionistic, substantial or shallow, etc. I am just affraid that this election might be the biggest goof-up in history when we simply don't take the time to listen and learn, but rather we are obessing about what Sarah Palin might have said about Dinosaurs. (if you don't want to take the time to follow the link, here is the hint: the quote was a fake quote made up as a joke.)

So whether you think Sarah Palin doesn't have the prerequisit experience to be Vice President, or if you think that Obama, who has less years of experience than Palin, doesn't have enough experience to be President, get into the real facts and stop pimping rediculum.

UPDATE: A friend of mine sent me a couple link that might be of value to you. Yahoo! has setup a political dashboard that simplifies a view into general election polls. You can view this here:

Yahoo! Election 08 Political Dashboard

As well, if you are interested in hearing about why the nation is going McCain, here is an article from Politico on Yahoo! News.

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